After Wednesday night’s 13 inning marathon the Phillies have played 79 games this season. With a mediocre record of 38-41 they will have to go 50-33 the rest of the way to achieve my pre-season prediction of 88 wins. That also is probably roughly what they will have to do if they want to be serious playoff contender.
Atlanta is 45-34 which means if the Braves play .500 ball the rest of the way they will end up with 86 or 87 wins. The Nats are also involved as they actually are 2 games ahead of the Phils. As for the wild card it looks like one of those teams will be the St. Louis-Pittsburgh loser in the Central. The second spot is currently Cincinnati’s-and the Reds have the exact same record as the Braves.
My concern is that upper management for the Phillies will look at all this and conclude “We have a shot at the playoffs!” And the Phillies do have a chance to make the playoffs-a 1% chance after Wednesday’s game according to Sports Club Stats. That seems a bit low; the same site gives the Nats-only 5 games behind the Braves-about a 9% chance of making the playoffs. However, this does illustrate how difficult it will be for the Phillies to get into the postseason.
I will never root for the Phillies to lose-but frankly a losing stretch might be a good thing for this team in the long-term. That would remove any questions about this team being a contender this season. Honestly this team has overachieved a bit; its expected record (based on run differential) is 33-46. Of course a couple of 14-2 losses in Doc’s last 2 starts has something to do with that. What this means to me is that the 1% playoff chance is probably accurate. This is just not a very good baseball team.
The games before the All Star Break will give the Phillies a chance to prove I am wrong. They have a total of 7 home games against the Braves and Nationals. Going at least 5-2 in those games is probably mandatory in order to keep any serious playoff hopes flickering. They finish up before the Break with a weekend home series against a lousy White Sox club. Of course a bad end to the current road trip-the Phillies have not done well in Pittsburgh even when they are good and the Pirates bad-could render the upcoming long homestand less meaningful-at least in terms of this season. However, that could provide the impetus to trying to start the rebuilding process now-something that will have to be done in the near future. My question is-Why put off the inevitable for a 1% chance?
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